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How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)

At least 4699¢99%
At least 4799¢99%
At least 4899¢99%
$3,630,193.10 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic Party holds at least 46 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Democrats will be included. Every voting seat in the Senate counts, including any seat not on the 2026 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceUnited States Congress
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$3,630,193.10
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • In addition to the general prohibition against trading on material nonpublic information, the Exchange will institute additional prohibitions for trading the contract. Persons under 18 years of age are not permitted to create Kalshi accounts. The following individuals will be prohibited from trading:
    • Any member or member-elect of <chamber>, and any candidate for a seat in <chamber> at <election>.
    • Any officer, employee, or contractor of <chamber> or of the United States Congress, including the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Secretary of the Senate, and any staff responsible for maintaining or publishing the official membership record, party breakdown, or party division of <chamber>.
    • Any officer, employee, or agent of a party caucus or conference in <chamber>, or of any national or state party organization, with access to material nonpublic information regarding the membership, party affiliation, or caucus membership of any member or member-elect of <chamber>.
    • Any officer, employee, or contractor of a state or local election authority involved in conducting, canvassing, or certifying <election> for any seat in <chamber>.
    • Any employee, officer, contractor, or agent of a campaign committee, party congressional campaign committee, or political action committee supporting or opposing candidates for <chamber> at <election>, with access to material nonpublic information regarding the outcome of any race for <chamber> or the party affiliation or caucus membership of any member or member-elect.
    • Any employee, officer, contractor, or agent of a Source Agency listed in Appendix A with access to material nonpublic information relating to the Underlying.
    • Any person who otherwise has the ability to influence, or has advance knowledge of, the outcome of <election> for any seat in <chamber>, the seating of any member of <chamber>, or the party affiliation or caucus membership of any member of <chamber> at the Measurement Time.
    • The immediate family members and members of the same household of any person described above

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
At least 57$910.26K2¢-33.33%
At least 56$577.00K98¢-1.03%
At least 55
$369K100¢-1.00%
At least 53$359.04K100¢-1.01%
At least 54$285.47K100¢-1.01%
At least 58$273.71K2¢+100.00%
At least 52
$217.10K100¢-1.01%
At least 51
$214.16K100¢-1.00%
At least 50
$161.11K100¢-1.01%
At least 49
$126.11K100¢-1.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
At least 57$910.26K99¢+1.03%
At least 56$577.00K4¢+33.33%
At least 55
$369K1¢—
At least 53$359.04K1¢+100.00%
At least 54$285.47K2¢+100.00%
At least 58$273.71K100¢-1.01%
At least 52
$217.10K2¢+100.00%
At least 51
$214.16K1¢—
At least 50
$161.11K2¢+100.00%
At least 49
$126.11K1¢—

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional). The leading outcome is At least 46, with an estimated probability of 99% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional). On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) is Feb 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using United States Congress as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

    Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.

  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional). Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)

Track live odds and trade event contracts inside a multi-asset portfolio on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for your prediction market strategies.

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)

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Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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