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  4. California permitted housing units in 2026
Economics

California permitted housing units in 2026

Above 100,00096¢96%
Above 105,00090¢90%
Above 110,00061¢61%
$150,751.10 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFederal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$150,751.10
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above 125,000
    Volume$45,014.88
    Price4¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 115,000
    Volume$39,821.58
    Price19¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 120,000
    Volume$23,350.52
    Price6¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 100,000
    Volume$17,242.40
    Price97¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 110,000
    Volume$13,239.72
    Price61¢
    +1.67% today
  • Above 105,000
    Volume$12,082.00
    Price91¢
    0.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Above 125,000
    Volume$45,014.88
    Price97¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 115,000
    Volume$39,821.58
    Price82¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 120,000
    Volume$23,350.52
    Price95¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 100,000
    Volume$17,242.40
    Price4¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 110,000
    Volume$13,239.72
    Price40¢
    -2.50% today
  • Above 105,000
    Volume$12,082.00
    Price10¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for California permitted housing units in 2026. The leading outcome is Above 100,000, with an estimated probability of 96% and a Yes contract price of $0.97. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for California permitted housing units in 2026 by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for California permitted housing units in 2026. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for California permitted housing units in 2026 is Jan 27, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for California permitted housing units in 2026 and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

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  4. 4

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Related events

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| $18,727.62 Vol.
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Above $430,000
Above $420,000
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| $11,111.26 Vol.
Above 3.80M
Above 3.90M
Above 4.00M
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
| $338,666.38 Vol.
Above 700,000
Above 710,000
Above 720,000
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| $5,370.64 Vol.
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Above 1.250M
Above 1.300M
US building permits for October
| $5,295.84 Vol.
Above 1.350M
Above 1.400M
Above 1.450M
30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026
| $716.00 Vol.
Above 7.50%
Above 8.00%
Above 7.75%
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
| $89,901.26 Vol.
Yes
How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2026?
$105,160.98 Vol.
Above 7.5%
Above 7.4%
Above 7.6%
Edmonton home price below C$440K in 2026?
| $11,417.58 Vol.
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Montreal single-family home price below C$625K in 2026?
| $19,863.32 Vol.
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New York City rent increase in 20​26
| $7,696.94 Vol.
Above 4%
Above 5%
Above 6%
Canada home price above C$700K in December?
| $4,657.38 Vol.
Above C$700,000
Vancouver condo price below C$650K in 2026?
| $5,462.92 Vol.
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Calgary home price below C$550K in 2026?
| $10,529.26 Vol.
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Will Canada housing starts go above 300K in 2026?
| $12,785.30 Vol.
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Colorado permitted housing units in 2026
| $274,875.64 Vol.
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NYC median asking rent in December 2026
| $663,187.96 Vol.
Above $3,900
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Toronto condo price below C$600K in 2026?
| $40,160.32 Vol.
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Will Colorado home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
| $18,927.08 Vol.
Above 679.21
Will California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
| $61,827.86 Vol.
Above 419.85
Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
| $29,644.88 Vol.
Above 327.38
Will New Hampshire home prices rise YoY?
| $42,343.36 Vol.
Above 478.68
Will Rhode Island home prices rise YoY?
| $28,541.20 Vol.
Above 431.10
Will Nevada home prices rise YoY?
| $26,025.78 Vol.
Above 423.62
Will Utah's House Price Index exceed 722.63 in Q4 2026?
| $13,059.52 Vol.
Above 722.63
Connecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
| $305,917.72 Vol.
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Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
| $324,224.34 Vol.
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Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
| $121,955.36 Vol.
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30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2027
| $8,148.28 Vol.
Above 6.00%
Above 6.25%
Above 6.50%
How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?
| $10,747.06 Vol.
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Above 8.00%
Above 8.50%

Live odds on California permitted housing units in 2026

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California permitted housing units in 2026

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Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.


Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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