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Economics

US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report

Above -2%87¢87%
Above -4%87¢87%
Above -6%87¢87%
$5,876.44 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -2%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first-published percentage change in MBA’s seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first new Weekly Applications Survey results release after market Issuance. All strikes use the same release, including strikes added later. The reported change is used directly, including holiday adjustments and regardless of the comparison period; no calculation is required. If separate changes are reported for multiple reference weeks, the latest reference week controls. Increases are positive, decreases negative, and unchanged is 0%. “Above” means strictly greater than the strike. Later revisions, corrections, and subsequent releases are ignored. If publication is delayed, trading remains closed pending the qualifying release, subject to the latest expiration and the contract’s missing-data provisions.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceMortgage Bankers Association
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$5,876.44
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above 6%
    Volume$1,452.00
    Price54¢
    — today
  • Above -2%
    Volume$1,000.00
    Price100¢
    — today
  • Above 10%
    Volume$571.20
    Price90¢
    — today
  • Above 4%
    Volume$553.60
    Price94¢
    — today
  • Above 8%
    Volume$524.40
    Price91¢
    — today
  • Above 0%
    Volume$460.00
    Price100¢
    — today
  • Above -4%
    Volume$400.00
    Price100¢
    — today
  • Above -10%
    Volume$303.24
    Price100¢
    — today
  • Above -8%
    Volume$299.20
    Price100¢
    — today
  • Above 2%
    Volume$284.80
    Price100¢
    — today

Trade No contracts

  • Above 6%
    Volume$1,452.00
    Price65¢
    -84.00% today
  • Above -2%
    Volume$1,000.00
    Price100¢
    -87.00% today
  • Above 10%
    Volume$571.20
    Price100¢
    -85.00% today
  • Above 4%
    Volume$553.60
    Price80¢
    -85.00% today
  • Above 8%
    Volume$524.40
    Price100¢
    -65.00% today
  • Above 0%
    Volume$460.00
    Price95¢
    -85.00% today
  • Above -4%
    Volume$400.00
    Price100¢
    -87.00% today
  • Above -10%
    Volume$303.24
    Price100¢
    -80.00% today
  • Above -8%
    Volume$299.20
    Price100¢
    -85.00% today
  • Above 2%
    Volume$284.80
    Price95¢
    -87.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report. The leading outcome is Above -2%, with an estimated probability of 87% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report is Oct 28, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Mortgage Bankers Association as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

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  4. 4

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Live odds on US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report

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US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report

Order
Odds
Max payoutBefore fees
$0.00

Prediction Markets Glossary

Learn more

Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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