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  4. California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
Economics

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Above 680,00098¢98%
Above 690,00095¢95%
Above 700,00083¢83%
$338,666.38 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 680,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026, including residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies. This is a policy inventory, not policies written during the year or new business. The market remains open past September 30 because the September 30 policy count is published later, typically in the following quarterly data release. Resolution uses the first official September 30, 2026 figure; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFederal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$338,666.38
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above 720,000
    Volume$133,574.34
    Price7¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 740,000
    Volume$105,000.00
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 710,000
    Volume$34,506.58
    Price25¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 690,000
    Volume$30,237.22
    Price97¢
    -1.04% today
  • Above 680,000
    Volume$17,232.00
    Price98¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 730,000
    Volume$15,661.74
    Price4¢
    -25.00% today
  • Above 700,000
    Volume$2,454.50
    Price84¢
    -1.19% today

Trade No contracts

  • Above 720,000
    Volume$133,574.34
    Price94¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 740,000
    Volume$105,000.00
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 710,000
    Volume$34,506.58
    Price76¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 690,000
    Volume$30,237.22
    Price4¢
    +25.00% today
  • Above 680,000
    Volume$17,232.00
    Price3¢
    0.00% today
  • Above 730,000
    Volume$15,661.74
    Price97¢
    +1.04% today
  • Above 700,000
    Volume$2,454.50
    Price17¢
    +6.25% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026. The leading outcome is Above 680,000, with an estimated probability of 98% and a Yes contract price of $0.98. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 is Nov 16, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

  1. 1

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

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Live odds on California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

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California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Order
Odds
Max payoutBefore fees
$0.00

Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.


Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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