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  4. 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes
Financials

2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

Yes74¢74%
No26¢26%
$4,705.22 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S. Treasury ending at 9:30 AM EST on Nov 13, 2026 is at least the opening target yield, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S. Treasury ending at 9:30 AM EST on Nov 13, 2026. The 2-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US2Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourcePyth - 2Y UST
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$4,705.22
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$4,705.22
    Price89¢
  • No
    Volume$4,705.22
    Price15¢

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes. The outcome is Target Yield: 4.86630%, with an estimated probability of 74% and a Yes contract price of $0.89. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes is Nov 13, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Pyth - 2Y UST as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

    Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.

  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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5-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes
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Live odds on 2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

Track live odds and trade event contracts inside a multi-asset portfolio on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for your prediction market strategies.

2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

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Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.


Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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