Zions Bancorp (ZION) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Zions Bancorp is supported by resilient fundamentals, including strong credit quality, minimal provision expense, and declining criticized and classified loans, with ACL at 1.13% covering NPLs 2.4x and NCOs averaging less than 10bp over the past 5 years. Loan growth has been solid, deposit costs held steady at 1.48%, and fee income and expenses both improved, helping drive a 61.2% efficiency ratio and management’s confidence in 100 to 150bp of positive operating leverage in 2026. Capital is also strengthening, with CET1 at 11.6%, TCE at 7.4%, rising TBV, and sustainable buybacks, while asset sensitivity, off-balance-sheet deposit repositioning, and lower AOCI losses should support NII and capital returns.

Zions Bancorp is viewed negatively because 2Q26 earnings strength was aided by one-time gains, including a $215M Visa sale and $37M in investment portfolio marks, while underlying profitability still showed pressure as NII of $677M missed expectations and adjusted PPNR came in below consensus. Its core franchise faces a tougher operating backdrop: NIM stayed flat at 3.27%, deposit outflows were concentrated in non-interest-bearing balances, funding costs rose on higher short-term borrowings, and management’s loan growth outlook relies mainly on C&I and owner-occupied CRE in a more competitive footprint. Although credit remained manageable with $3M provision expense and 6bp net charge-offs, the bank’s low TCE ratio, reliance on rate assumptions, and exposure to shared national credits and energy lending leave it vulnerable if asset quality or margins deteriorate.