Clear Secure (YOU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Clear Secure is supported by a compelling combination of strong execution, expanding monetization, and solid balance-sheet strength, as shown by 1Q’26 bookings of $291.7M, up 40.8% Y/Y and 16% ahead of consensus, with revenue of $253.0M and adj. EBITDA of $80.6M at a 31.9% margin. Its business model continues to benefit from a differentiated secure identity network across aviation and non-aviation channels, with active Clear+ members rising 13.0% Y/Y to 8.2M, eGates launched at 43 airports, and Clear1 providing additional growth optionality through enterprise, healthcare, and government use cases. Even with softer TSA volume trends and intensifying competition from TSA Touchless ID in 65 airports, the company’s recurring subscriptions, strong operating leverage, and $800.1M of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities underpin a favorable fundamental outlook.

Clear Secure is facing a weaker fundamental setup because the first quarter of 4Q'26 bookings will be measured against much tougher Y/Y comparisons, including 3Q'25 at +14.3% and 4Q'25 at +25.4%, while the company also has to overcome a softer domestic travel backdrop and easier-to-miss guidance dynamics after record 4Q'25 Clear1 results and the 4Q'25 government shutdown. Clear Secure is also increasingly vulnerable to competitive and retention pressure as TSA Touchless ID offers a cheaper alternative to Clear+ at no-cost add-on pricing for existing PreCheck members versus Clear+'s $209/year sticker price, raising the risk that Clear1 momentum and eGates alone may not be enough to prevent churn or slow Clear+ member growth over the next 6-12 months. Clear Secure is additionally constrained by the fact that its airport agreements are non-exclusive and not indefinite, even though total Clear member enrollments rose 31.3% Y/Y to 41.0M, because that scale does not eliminate the risk that bookings growth could decelerate from the Street’s 16.6% Y/Y expectation in 4Q if the weaker travel environment and rising substitute products weigh on demand.