Exagen Inc (XGN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Exagen Inc. demonstrates a strong upward trajectory in its financial performance, highlighted by an average selling price (ASP) of $441 per test, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth and a consistent increase despite facing challenges in ASP expansion. The company has achieved a commendable 19% year-over-year revenue increase over the first nine months of the year, fueled by positive momentum in both ASPs and test volume growth, with October marking one of the highest volume months in recent years. Furthermore, Exagen's enhanced operational efficiency is underscored by a significant rise in average revenue per sales territory, from approximately $285k two years ago to around $430k in Q3, alongside plans for expanding its market presence to 45 territories by the end of 2025.

Exagen Inc. reported mixed financial results for the second and third quarters of 2025, with top-line revenue at $17.2 million but missing bottom-line expectations, evidenced by a GAAP EPS of -$0.21, which fell short of the consensus estimate. The company has faced significant restructuring, including a reduction of approximately 42 full-time employees across various divisions, which raises concerns about the efficiency of its operations. Furthermore, despite a reported backlog of $3.5 million, revenue recognition is anticipated to be inconsistent, leading to uncertainty in future earnings performance, thereby contributing to a negative outlook on the stock.