Exagen Inc (XGN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Exagen Inc. has demonstrated solid financial performance, with a trailing twelve-month average selling price (ASP) of $441 per test, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9%, and a 16% growth in volume year-over-year, signaling robust operational execution. Revenue for the first nine months of the year showed a strong increase of 19% year-over-year, supported by balanced growth in both ASPs and test volumes, while the average revenue per sales territory has significantly improved to approximately $430,000, up from $285,000 two years prior. Additionally, Exagen's cash position has strengthened, with a quarter-end cash balance of $35.7 million and positive cash flow generation, indicating effective financial management and a favorable outlook for continued expansion in the diagnostics market.

Exagen Inc. reported a top-line revenue of $17.2 million for the second quarter of 2025, although it faced a bottom-line miss with a GAAP EPS of -$0.21, underperforming against consensus expectations. The company reduced its workforce by approximately 42 full-time equivalents across various functions, including sales and research and development, indicating operational challenges that may impact future growth. Additionally, Exagen's revenue per sales territory declined slightly from the prior quarter, and the expected lumpiness in revenue recognition poses further uncertainty to its financial performance.