Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Wynn Resorts is seen as undervalued because the market appears to be discounting much of the embedded value in Las Vegas, Boston, Macau, and the UAE project, even though the business has visible cash-flow generation and pricing power. The thesis is supported by management’s estimates that Las Vegas is worth about $45/share on roughly $900M of run-rate EBITDA, Boston about $7/share on $200M of EBITDA, and the UAE project about $20/share, while Macau royalties and unused land add further value. With the stock down about 18% YTD, Macau and US EBITDA contributions at 49% and 51% of 2025 prepandemic EBITDA, and Macau premium-mass demand and future nongaming expansion still intact, the long-term asset base looks attractively mispriced.

Wynn Resorts is vulnerable to a combination of cyclical and structural headwinds, including its heavy exposure to high-end gaming, Macau political risk, high construction costs, and slowing discretionary spending that can pressure demand for premium resorts and casinos. Its growth plan still requires substantial capital outlays for nongaming expansion in Macau, a 432-suite tower opening in 2029, and an integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates modeled to open in 2027, all of which raise execution risk and may dilute returns if demand softens. The company’s 2025 prepandemic EBITDA mix was split 49% from Macao and 51% from the US, but the quant model still shows a marginally negative view driven by weak profitability and inefficient conversion of investment into earnings despite seemingly attractive valuation.