WALD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waldencast PLC has demonstrated solid financial growth, with total sales increasing by 5.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, reaching $66.8 million, and exhibiting growth across both its Obagi and Milk Makeup segments. In the third quarter, the company's growth accelerated to 10.1%, driven by a strong performance in eCommerce and international markets, as well as innovative product launches and expanded distribution on platforms such as Amazon Premium Beauty. Additionally, Milk Makeup has outperformed the broader prestige beauty market, with year-to-date consumption in the US rising by 12%, greatly enhancing the company's overall revenue outlook.

Waldencast PLC has reduced its fiscal year 2025 revenue outlook to flat, alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin forecasted in the high single digits, indicating a significant decline in growth expectations. The consolidated adjusted gross margin contracted 310 basis points year-over-year, falling short of consensus estimates, attributed primarily to a substantial 20% decline in sales from the Milk Makeup brand, despite a 10.1% increase from Obagi. Overall, total sales were down 3.4% year-over-year, highlighting a concerning trend of underperformance and soft consumption in key markets for the company's product segments.