WALD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waldencast is facing short-term challenges due to lower than expected fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and flat net revenue, driven by Milk Makeup's declining sales. However, the growth in Obagi and its potential in the dermal filler market, along with Milk's plans to focus on international markets and innovation, provide a positive outlook for the company in the long-term. These efforts, along with the acquisition of Novaestiq Corp. and the rationalization of non-strategic channels, could lead to improved financial performance and margin expansion in the future.

Waldencast is facing challenges in both its Obagi Skincare and Milk Makeup segments in terms of revenue and gross margin. The company's ongoing strategic review and slower international demand for Milk Makeup have put pressure on its growth and profitability. However, the company's entry into the filler market and its efforts to improve momentum for Milk Makeup in 2026 could potentially lead to a rebound. It is important to consider the risks in the industry, such as volatility of commodity costs and consumer spending, when evaluating the company's performance.