Valvoline (VVV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Valvoline Inc demonstrated robust growth by adding 170 new system-wide stores in the fiscal year, indicating a strong franchise pipeline and expansion potential. The company reported a same-store sales (SSS) growth of 4.9%, benefiting from an increase in ticket size driven by factors such as premiumization, list price adjustments, and higher traffic, suggesting increased consumer demand for its services. With projected EBITDA growth of 12-17%, Valvoline is well-positioned for continued financial performance, supported by its expanding presence and market share across the U.S. and Canada.

Valvoline Inc. has faced a negative outlook due to lower-than-expected adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026, projected at $1.60-$1.70, significantly below the prior estimate of $1.90, which raises concerns about future profitability. Despite generating revenue of $453.8 million in FQ4, which represented a 4.2% year-over-year increase, this figure fell short of consensus expectations. Additionally, higher depreciation, interest, and tax expenses impacted the adjusted EPS, alongside management's acknowledgment of worsened used oil pricing affecting product margins, suggesting further challenges to the company's financial stability.