Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated substantial revenue growth, particularly with Fanapt, which experienced a year-over-year revenue increase of 27% in 2Q25 and 31% in 3Q25, suggesting an annualized run-rate nearing $120 million. Additionally, the company's new product Ponvory has shown promising demand, with new patient prescriptions reaching record highs, indicating strong market potential as the promotional efforts resume. The anticipated growth trajectory is supported by strategic investments in prescriber awareness and marketing initiatives, which have led to significant increases in prescription volume and an expanding patient base for both Fanapt and Ponvory.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has reported net product sales of $7.1 million in the second quarter of 2025, which reflects an 18% year-over-year decline, though sales rebounded to $7 million in the third quarter with a 20% year-over-year increase. Despite this, the company's future earnings potential is constrained by the anticipated erosion of exclusivity by the end of 2027 and the looming competition from generics, particularly impacting revenues from Fanapt as the transition to an improved metabolite and competing products begins. Furthermore, challenges such as slower-than-expected commercial traction, risks of negative pricing developments, regulatory setbacks, and potential medium- to long-term dilution pose significant threats to Vanda's financial outlook.