VITL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vital Farms Inc. has positioned itself for robust growth due to improved distribution strategies, reflected in enhanced shelf space, product velocity, and expanded SKU counts at major retailers, resulting in anticipated sales growth of 24% for 2026 to $942 million. The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in supply and an ongoing shift towards organic products, which will further drive its market share amidst a currently modest 3% volume share of the market. Furthermore, Vital Farms has consistently demonstrated strong revenue growth since going public, supported by efficient distribution and healthy price/mix, establishing itself as a leading brand in the premium egg market.

Vital Farms Inc. has experienced a significant decline in its stock price despite consistent operational performance and expectations for earnings growth, leading to an EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple that is approximately 25% below historical averages. The company faces gross margin pressures stemming from increased promotional activities, tariffs, and rising commodity costs, which have resulted in forecasts of lower sales and EBITDA margins than previously anticipated, with current margins falling short of long-term targets. Furthermore, potential distribution losses could further jeopardize financial performance and negatively impact growth prospects, placing additional strain on its equity valuation.