USPH Stock Forecast & Price Target

US Physical Therapy is attractive because its core physical therapy business continues to post solid demand trends, with 1Q26 revenue of $198.3 million, 1.543 million visits, and same-store growth of 2.5% despite weather-related disruption. Its outlook is further supported by improving pricing, including a commercial rate lift above 3% and net rate per visit of $106.49, while its industrial injury prevention segment delivered 11.8% revenue growth and expanding margins. Management also has multiple growth levers in 2026 and beyond, including two 10-year hospital partnerships, de novo openings, and M&A, all backed by $28 million in cash, manageable leverage of 2.2x net debt to annualized EBITDA, and expected 2026 FCF of $65 million.

US Physical Therapy is facing a cautious outlook because 1Q26 showed that profitability is still exposed to cost inflation, with non-GAAP salaries and related costs at $99.1M and total non-GAAP PT operating costs up 9% Y/Y versus an 8% rise in net patient revenue. Although revenue of $198.3M and EBITDA of $20.2M beat internal estimates, both missed consensus, and adverse weather cut visits by about 31K and reduced revenue by $3M-$4M, highlighting fragile demand. The company also faces ongoing clinician wage pressure, Medicare reimbursement pressure on roughly a third of revenue, and cyclical risk to the Industrial Injury Prevention segment if economic conditions weaken manufacturing customers.