
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Upstart Holdings is attractive because June originations rose 48% y/y to $1,500 million, pointing to a 2Q26 transaction volume of $4,227 million, up 50% y/y and 23% q/q, while still running 5% ahead of consensus. The thesis is strengthened by improving funding durability through committed capital and the potential bank charter, which could reduce reliance on third-party funding, lift EPS by as much as 60% annually, and support stronger margins and volume growth. Management’s AI-led underwriting, expanding product mix across personal loans, auto, and HELOCs, plus EBITDA margins already 100 bps above 21% guidance, suggest the business can scale profitably while sustaining momentum into 2026 and beyond.
Bears say
Upstart Holdings is facing a fragile funding backdrop, as stalled private credit supply and rising redemption requests at private credit funds could halt y/y growth in transaction volumes and force downward revisions to originations and broader estimates. Higher loan loss rates would further weaken investor demand and funding while creating negative fair value marks on loans held on the balance sheet, increasing earnings volatility. In addition, higher interest rates could make it harder to profitably underwrite borrowers at appropriate APRs below 36%, pressuring both growth and profitability.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Upstart Holdings and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
Start investing in Upstart Holdings (UPST)
Order type
Buy in
Order amount
Est. shares
0 shares