Tesla (TSLA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tesla demonstrates strong performance with a year-over-year increase of 79.1% in vehicle deliveries for October and November, which highlights growing consumer demand and the resilience of its business model. The company's impressive financial metrics include total revenue of $228 billion, a gross profit of approximately $78.5 billion, and an EBITDA of around $77.5 billion, reflecting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness. Additionally, Tesla's ongoing expansion in the European market, alongside a strengthened U.S. market share, positions the company favorably to capitalize on the rising demand for battery electric vehicles amidst evolving consumer preferences.

Tesla's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a significant decline in vehicle sales, particularly in China, where registration data reveals consecutive months of decreases, leading to a forecasted 4Q25 delivery estimate of approximately 427,000 vehicles—down roughly 13.8% year-over-year. The company's market share has also slipped from 10.8% in 2024 to just 8.3% through the first ten months of 2025, exacerbated by a record low of 3.1% in October. Furthermore, the reliance on policy incentives for growth has been highlighted, as the expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits has led to a sharp drop in demand following a pull-forward in purchasing behavior in the previous quarter.