Tronox (TROX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tronox Holdings is poised for growth, with expectations of mid-single-digit top-line growth and a 200 basis point margin expansion driven by factors such as mining expansions and the benefits of Australia's free trade agreement with India. The positive outlook is further supported by the anticipation of rising EBITDA as global demand recovers—particularly if China’s economy shows signs of improvement—alongside ongoing cost savings initiatives. Additionally, the company’s ability to achieve positive free cash flow suggests effective financial management and the potential for de-leveraging, reinforcing a favorable long-term investment narrative.

Tronox Holdings is facing a challenging financial outlook, with Q2 EBITDA projected at $107 million, reflecting a decline from previous estimates due to a tough demand environment and soft pricing pressures. In the event of a deep recession, the company's EBITDA could fall approximately 27% to $411 million, highlighting the risks associated with reduced pricing and volumes while acknowledging that TiO2 tariffs may help mitigate some impacts. Additionally, the company's high leverage raises concerns about potential risks to future earnings, cash flows, and the sustainability of its dividend payouts.