Trimble (TRMB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trimble is well positioned because 1Q26 demonstrated durable core demand, with revenue of $972M beating consensus by $22M and ARR reaching $2.509B, up 12% organically as-adjusted. Its outlook is strengthened by broad-based segment resilience, as AECO and Field Systems each grew organic ARR 14% and 12%, while Transportation & Logistics still posted 7% growth despite moderating from the prior quarter. Profitability is also improving, with adjusted EBITDA of about $278M and margins of 28.6%, plus FY26 guidance raised to 7%-9% organic revenue growth, reaffirmed 12%-14% organic ARR growth, and a tightened EBIT margin range.

Trimble is facing a more cautious valuation backdrop, as the lower target of $87 from $97 reflects a reduced terminal multiple of 18x FCF versus 20x previously, driven by continued compression in software multiples. This suggests that even with its AECO, Field Systems, and Transportation and Logistics businesses, the market is applying less value to future cash flow generation, likely due to weaker confidence in durable growth and profitability. The outlook is negative because the core investment thesis is being pressured by declining sector multiples rather than improving fundamentals, which points to limited upside until software valuations stabilize.