Fee Floors Support Substantial Fair Value Estimate Increase for Targa

Strategist

Stephen Ellis

Targa Resources is primarily a gatherer and processor of natural gas. Seventy percent of its gathering and processing, or G&P, assets are in the Permian, which generates about 80% of its volumes. The firm has historically outgrown Permian production growth, given its leverage to growth-oriented customers and robust gas/oil ratios. It has aggressively made acquisitions, with Lucid in 2022 for $3.5 billion its biggest deal yet. To date, it has contributed to very healthy near-term growth. Fee floors provided protection for Targa downside for 10 out of 12 months in 2023, and we expect a similar outcome for 2024 given the delay in LNG projects and demand uplift. 

Targa’s strategy of controlling and moving its Permian molecules on its own assets throughout the entire value chain is a good one. It reduces costs by eliminating third parties, lets them capture spreads between two markets as opportunities arise, and by adding pipelines, liquefied petroleum gas, and fractionation assets, adds secure levels of fee-based income. It also offers opportunities for expansions, such as the Daytona expansion that Targa is undertaking for the Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline at very attractive returns. This higher-quality fee income contrasts with the percentage of proceeds contracts that typically define Permian gas and gathering contracts, meaning, processors are linked to commodity prices (though Targa hedges for at least the coming year) for material fee income. 

Despite our concerns about the G&P assets, we’re optimistic about the future of LPG exports and Grand Prix. LPG exports are largely under contract and sent mainly to Asia and Latin America markets. India remains a potentially attractive option under a government scheme designed to encourage LPG usage. Targa has wisely expanded its export capacity recently, and volumes are at record levels. 

The Grand Prix NGL pipeline has been a material positive for Targa. The pipeline has driven material natural gas liquids volumes increases, linking Targa assets at both ends of the pipe. Targa is now adding the Daytona pipeline to Grand Prix, further expanding its value at what we expect to be a highly attractive per-unit cost.

Business Strategy & Outlook

We do not believe Targa Resources has earned an economic moat. About half of the business is gathering and processing assets, which have no moat because of the lack of regulation, lower capital intensity, and weak contract quality. The rest is the higher-quality logistics and marketing segment, with the Grand Prix pipeline, substantial NGL fractionation assets, and an important LPG exporting position. But given that the gathering and processing business is asset-intensive and receives the bulk of investments and acquisitions, firm-level returns on invested capital have typically been in the mid-single-digit range, although this has changed more recently. 

Targa’s returns on capital have improved massively over the past few years. Returns on invested capital in 2022 and 2023 are in the 6%-8% range compared with an average of 3% between 2016 and 2021. We expect returns to average about 8% over the next five years, but ultimately, we do not think those returns are durable enough to support a decadelong profile of excess returns and a narrow economic moat. We would attribute this improvement to a few factors, some of which we see as durable, while others are less durable. Given the very narrow spread between our expected ROICs, the historically poor performance of Targa throughout the commodity cycle, and the uncertainty regarding product profits over a 10-year horizon, we cannot award Targa a moat. 

The first is a sizable improvement in efficiency. Operating expenses as a percentage of earnings have declined by about 30%-50% across the gathering processing and logistics segments over the past five to six years. This improvement has taken Targa from being a highly inefficient and poor operator to closer to an average operator, in our view, given the material improvement in per-unit costs. This improvement was primarily due to Targa finally integrating its many prior acquisitions in an efficient manner. We believe Targa can maintain an industry-average position on the cost side. 

The second has been the introduction and successful ramp-up of the Grand Prix pipeline. The Grand Prix pipeline moves about 550,000 bbl/d of natural gas liquids from the Permian and Oklahoma to Mont Belvieu, Texas. Targa is pursuing the Daytona expansion (another 400,000 bbl/d) due online by the end of 2024, as an effective twin pipeline and expansion. The pipeline expansion has allowed Targa to collect high-quality fixed fees on pipeline volumes, and by carrying Targa volumes supplied by its gathering and processing operators has reduced its costs through the avoidance of tariffs on third-party pipelines. With the Grand Prix providing a ready outlet for secured volumes at low costs, Targa has been able to pursue related expansions on the LPG export side, fractionation capacity, and gathering and processing capacity, further boosting earnings. While Grand Prix contributions are not directly broken out, we recognize that it has had a broader effect on Targa’s financials. We also consider the earnings improvements here as durable. 

The final piece to the Targa puzzle is the product and marketing contributions, largely driven by the percentage of proceeds contracts from its gathering and processing operations. We estimate more than 50% of Targa’s profits are derived from selling the individual components of the wellhead stream via its contracts and typically hedges its exposure to changes in commodity prices one year in advance instead of fixed fees. The one-year out of hedging means that product marketing revenue changes substantially from year to year depending on oil and gas prices but is relatively secure on a 12-month horizon. However, profits are influenced by Targa’s costs of processing and contractual terms, most importantly the existence of any fixed fee component and fee floors. Historically, we have observed product margins increase materially during periods of low oil and gas prices which has forced revenue declines, suggesting fee floors are protecting Targa’s downside. Without a detailed and granular level of insight into Targa’s contracts, we are not particularly confident in assuming that product gross margin contributions in a given period represent a floor for future periods, especially over a 10-year horizon. 

Given the sizable number of transactions Targa has undertaken over the past few years, historical comparisons are muddied. We would reevaluate our view if Targa can maintain returns on invested capital above its cost of capital during an industry downturn, versus simply printing money through an upcycle. We would consider customer pressure to reduce fees and test if not break fee floors to be the greatest risk in this scenario. We ultimately see the G&P operations as value destructive over the long run. 

We believe Targa’s gathering and processing assets have no moat because of the lower levels of capital intensity and poor contract quality. Producers typically have no shortage of G&P providers to pick from to meet their needs. Further, contracts are typically acreage dedication contracts that can last for 10-20 years but expose the G&P provider to both capital risk and changing basin economics. Given high well decline rates, there’s constant investment required by the G&P provider to maintain and increase volumes, and if basin production peaks and declines, the G&P assets risk being stranded. Impairments of customer contracts are frequent in the industry. This is particularly the case in the Permian basin, where the majority of Targa’s G&P assets are located, which we regard as the most competitive of all basins in the United States. 

We also consider the fee structure to be poor, because we expect a majority of Targa's contracts are percentage of proceeds, or POP, exposing Targa to commodity price risk. To some extent, the higher POP exposure is driven by basin history and producer expectations. In some cases, Targa will take ownership of the raw NGLs (or equity NGLs) and act as a shipper on third-party pipelines to move the NGLs to market, paying the tariffs out of its proceeds from the POP contract. The higher costs incurred here help illustrate the weakness of Targa’s competitive position and make the Grand Prix pipeline more important as Targa will then pay the tariffs to itself. These G&P assets are made up of over 10 billion cubic feet per day of onshore G&P capacity primarily in the Permian, the Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and Barnett Shale plays. The remainder of the G&P portfolio is made up of G&P assets serving the shallow water in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Targa’s downstream operations, the other half of its asset portfolio, are much more attractive, and we would consider them to have a moat based on efficient scale. Earnings contributions are split about 75% fractionation and Grand Prix contributions, 15% LPG, and 10% marketing. These assets include fractionation capacity located at Mont Belvieu, LPG exporting facilities, and NGL and gas marketing and distribution capabilities. The LPG business operates under long-term contracts with take-or-pay provisions.

For the fractionation assets, we see a number of moaty elements. We do consider fractionators to be higher-quality assets than natural gas and processing assets because of the more-concentrated nature of the market. Gas processing plants typically connect to only a single NGL fractionation plant because it is uneconomic to have multiple connections, whereas shippers often have multiple options for gas gathering and processing. We estimate that 70%-80% of the fractionation market is concentrated within about seven or eight key players, all integrated midstream firms. Given that NGL fractionation plants are between natural gas processing plants, and in Targa’s case, an LPG export facility in the value chain, we think these investments are more likely to be sanctioned by a firm that owns all three parts of the chain versus an independent third party that will not be able to guarantee enough upstream and downstream supply to make the investment profitable. Contracts are also typically fee based. 

With an estimated 40% of fractionation capacity in the U.S. at Mont Belvieu, Targa, Energy Transfer Partners (via Lone Star), and Enterprise Products Partners are dominant at this important market hub. The barriers to entry are sizable in terms of obtaining the necessary real estate, the related upstream and downstream parts of the value chain, and more specifically for Mont Belvieu, the salt caverns for NGL storage are quite important. Targa has ample storage at Mont Belvieu. These storage assets are critical for managing the logistics of exporting LPG, for example, and for allowing midstream firms and producers to take advantage of seasonal changes in demand and prices. Given fractionation’s position in the overall value chain, it only makes sense to expand capacity when new pipelines are added to deliver NGLs to the hub, and those assets are likely to be controlled by the same players who control the fractionation capacity, ensuring a rational and profitable market. 

Targa's marketing and distribution operations are sizable, depending mainly on NGL differentials. Further, the G&P and logistics assets are generally connected, allowing them to operate as a true network. The firm’s marketing operations include NGL distribution, where it purchases mixed NGLs for resale to petrochemical manufacturers; propane marketing, where it sells its propane supply to major retailers; and similar efforts for natural gas. It also has transportation assets, which include railcars, transport tractors, and NGL barges.

If Targa were to earn a moat, its best path forward is likely via substantial expansion of its logistics business and by adding more long-haul pipelines to the mix, ultimately propelling the logistics business to closer to 60% of the overall enterprise on a durable basis. Evidence of the G&P operations generating returns well above their cost of capital throughout a downcycle would also help. 

Midstream moats are primarily earned via an efficient scale moat source. Efficient scale refers to situations where companies are effectively serving a very limited market size, and potential competitors have little incentive to enter the market because by doing so, they would lower the industry’s returns to below the cost of capital. While the midstream industry is massive, individual companies connect a limited number of markets to one another. Therefore, the underlying routes they serve can each be considered individual, localized markets to which efficient scale applies. Even though low-cost shale oil and gas production in North America has grown rapidly, we've seen little evidence of speculative capacity additions with the majority of a pipeline’s takeaway capacity being contracted before starting construction, ensuring that new capacity is added in an efficient manner.

Midstream markets exhibit several of the characteristics we look for in efficient scale markets. Demand for oil and gas products is growing slowly and should peak within the next decade or two, discouraging potential new entrants. Incremental demand can be met by incumbent companies at a very low cost, typically via compression, twinning a pipeline, or other means, making it difficult for new entrants to see a profitable investment opportunity. Demand is also fairly inelastic for oil and gas, meaning potential new entrants can’t simply undercut existing operators on price to gain market entry. There are also significant barriers to entry in terms of multibillion-dollar investments to build new pipelines and related investments as well as satisfying regulatory and other stakeholder concerns, which have only increased in recent years. Finally, exiting the market is extremely difficult, as assets can operate for decades safely with minimal maintenance investment, and repurposing older pipelines that may have low utilization for a higher and better use is a key skill set of good midstream management teams.

New pipelines are typically constructed to allow shippers or producers to take advantage of large price differentials (basis differentials) between two market hubs because supply and demand is out of balance in both markets. Pipeline operators will enter into long-term contracts with shippers to recover the project’s construction and development costs as well as a return on capital, in exchange for a reasonable tariff that allows a shipper to capture a profitable differential, and capacity will be added until it is no longer profitable to do so. 

Pipelines are approved by regulators only when there is an economic need, and pipeline development takes years. Regulatory oversight is provided by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and at the state and local levels, and new pipelines under consideration have to contend with onerous environmental and other permitting issues. 

A network of pipelines serving multiple end markets and supplied by multiple regions is typically more valuable than a scattered collection of assets. A pipeline network allows the midstream firm to optimize the flow of hydrocarbons across the system and capture geographic differentials; use storage facilities to capture price differentials over time; and direct more hydrocarbons through its system via storage, and gathering and processing assets, ensuring security of flows and higher fees. 

Material environmental, social, and governance exposures create additional risk for midstream investors. In this industry, the most significant exposures are greenhouse gas emissions (from upstream extraction, midstream operations, and downstream consumption) and other emissions, effluents, pipeline spills, and opposition and protests. In addition to the reputational threat, these issues could force climate-conscious consumers away from fossil fuels in greater numbers, resulting in long-term demand erosion. Climate concerns could also trigger regulatory interventions, such as production limits, removal of existing infrastructure, and perhaps even direct taxes on carbon emissions.

Midstream emissions are relatively low in the life cycle of oil and gas, and midstream firms have relatively lower risk than upstream and downstream firms from carbon taxes. Canadian firms already pay carbon taxes on their carbon emissions, most of which are generally passed to their shippers and other customers. Spills represent a major threat and have created great resistance from environmentalists, Indigenous groups, and other climate-conscious persons. Examples of the opposition are seen in President Joe Biden’s revocation of the Keystone XL presidential permit and the legal challenges around the Dakota Access Pipeline system. 

Targa has laid out two ESG-related goals to reduce methane intensity across its gathering, boosting, and processing operations by 2025.

None

Economic Moat

Targa Resources

Targa Resources Corp. provides midstream natural gas and natural gas liquids services. It also provides gathering, storing, and terminaling crude oil, and storing, terminaling, and selling refined petroleum products. It operates through the following business segments: Gathering and Processing, and Logistics and Transportation. The Gathering and Processing segment includes assets used in the gathering of natural gas produced from oil and gas wells and processing this raw natural gas into merchantable natural gas by extracting NGLs and removing impurities, and assets used for crude oil gathering and terminaling. The Logistics and Transportation segment includes all the activities necessary to convert mixed NGLs into NGL products and provides certain value-added services such as the storing, fractionating, terminaling, transporting and marketing of NGLs and NGL products, including services to LPG exporters, and the storing and terminaling of refined petroleum products and crude oil and certain natural gas supply and marketing activities in support of its other businesses. The company was founded on October 27, 2005, and is headquartered in Houston, TX.

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Targa Resources Corp. provides midstream natural gas and natural gas liquids services. It also provides gathering, storing, and terminaling crude oil, and storing, terminaling, and selling refined petroleum products. It operates through the Gathering and Processing and Logistics and Transportation segments. The Gathering and Processing segment includes assets used in the gathering of natural gas produced from oil and gas wells and processing this raw natural gas into merchantable natural gas by extracting NGLs and removing impurities, and assets used for crude oil gathering and terminaling. The Logistics and Transportation segment focuses on the activities necessary to convert mixed NGLs into NGL products and provides certain value-added services such as the storing, fractionating, terminaling, transporting and marketing of NGLs and NGL products, including services to LPG exporters, and the storing and terminaling of refined petroleum products and crude oil and certain natural gas supply and marketing activities in support of its other businesses. The company was founded in October 2005 and is headquartered in Houston, TX.

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HOUSTON, Aug.  17, 2020  (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Targa Resources Partners LP (“Targa Resources Partners” or the “Partnership”), a subsidiary of Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE:TRGP) announced today that its previously announced cash tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) to purchase any and all of its 6.750% senior notes due 2024 (the “2024 Notes”) expired at 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on August 17, 2020 (the “Expiration Time”). As of the Expiration Time, $262,131,000 aggregate principal amount of the 2024 Notes (45.2%) were validly tendered, which excludes $14,143,000 aggregate principal amount of the 2024 Notes that remain subject to guaranteed delivery procedures. Targa Resources Partners expects to accept for payment all such 2024 Notes validly tendered and not validly withdrawn in the Tender Offer and expects to make payment for the 2024 Notes on August 18, 2020, subject to Targa Resources Partners’ successful completion of its previously announced debt financing transaction (the “Financing Condition”). Concurrently with the launch of the Tender Offer, Targa Resources Partners exercised its right to optionally redeem any 2024 Notes not validly tendered and purchased in the Tender Offer, pursuant to the terms of the Indenture relating to the 2024 Notes, conditioned upon and subject to satisfaction of the Financing Condition.  

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