TPB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Turning Point Brands Inc. has demonstrated a positive trajectory in market share, with in-store market share increasing by 50 basis points to 11.2%, alongside improved consumer offtake trends, despite declining overall category performance. The company's oral nicotine products, particularly its Modern Oral segment, are projected to significantly enhance revenue and margins, positioning themselves to overtake Stoker's and Zig-Zag as the leading revenue contributors by 2030. Additionally, Stoker’s moist snuff tobacco (MST) has shown strong year-over-year sales growth of 6%, benefiting from shifting consumer preferences and an aging demographic that favors discount products, accounting for approximately 70% of segment revenue.

Turning Point Brands Inc is facing significant challenges, including market share erosion in its Stoker’s moist snuff tobacco products and a shift away from smokeable cannabis, both of which are expected to adversely affect revenue and earnings. The projection of a potential sequential decline in revenue for the second quarter, along with a contraction in gross margins—particularly a nearly 200 basis point decline in the Zig-Zag segment—indicates worsening financial performance. Furthermore, the EBITDA outlook for 2025 is estimated at approximately $110 million, which is slightly below the midpoint of the current guidance, highlighting increased concerns over the company's financial stability amidst external tariff risks.