
TPB Stock Forecast & Price Target
TPB Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Turning Point Brands Inc. has recently experienced a notable increase in its market share, with in-store market share rising 50 basis points to 11.2%, reflecting a positive trend in consumer demand despite broader declines in the HSD category. The company is poised for significant growth as modern oral nicotine products are expected to increasingly contribute to overall revenues, with projections indicating that these revenues will surpass those of its legacy Stoker's segment by 2028 and Zig-Zag by 2030. Additionally, the moist snuff tobacco segment continues to perform well, with a year-over-year sales increase of 6% in the third quarter, supported by shifting consumer preferences and a growing contribution from Stoker’s products.
Bears say
The financial outlook for Turning Point Brands, Inc. is negatively impacted by the erosion of market share in its Stoker's moist snuff tobacco (MST) products, alongside a declining demand for smokeable cannabis flower, which is predicted to significantly affect revenue and earnings. The company is expected to experience a sequential revenue decline in the second quarter, following a pull forward in the first quarter, which may fall short of market expectations. Additionally, gross margins are anticipated to contract, primarily driven by a nearly 200 basis point decline in the Zig-Zag segment and an 80 basis point decline in Stoker's, contributing to a modest EBITDA outlook of approximately $110 million for 2025, which is slightly below current guidance amid increased tariff risks.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Turning Point Brands and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
TPB Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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