TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts Inc has demonstrated a solid increase in active surgeon users, rising by 7.0% year-over-year to approximately 3,285, which indicates growing adoption of its Lapiplasty system despite a slight decline in utilization per surgeon. The company's strategic initiatives, including enhanced direct-to-consumer programs and expanded physician education, position it well to capitalize on faster market uptake and potentially improve profitability through higher average selling prices (ASPs) and increased share of complementary foot and ankle procedures. Additionally, with a bolstered sales force and the introduction of ancillary products, Treace is poised for incremental revenue growth, underscoring a favorable outlook for the company's financial performance in the coming years.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc is facing significant financial challenges, as projected revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to decline by approximately 10% year-over-year, estimating around $61.8 million, despite the period being historically strong for bunion-related procedures. Furthermore, the company has revised down its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance from $224-230 million to $211-213 million, attributing this decrease to headwinds related to the Lapiplasty procedure and a general slowdown in elective surgeries. With expectations of negative year-over-year growth in 2026 and a stagnant valuation multiple, the outlook for Treace Medical's stock remains unfavorable as these factors may result in prolonged discounts in its market valuation.