TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. has demonstrated a solid increase in active surgeon users, growing by 7% year-over-year to approximately 3,285, which indicates a robust adoption of its Lapiplasty 3D Bunion Correction procedure, despite a slight decline in utilization per surgeon. The company is poised for revenue growth driven by enhanced direct-to-consumer programs, expanded physician education, and a strengthened sales force that focuses on complementary foot and ankle procedures, alongside its existing offerings. With opportunities for improved profit margins through higher average selling prices and increased surgeon utilization, Treace Medical Concepts is well-positioned for continued growth in the orthopaedic medical device market.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. has projected a revenue decline of approximately 10% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, with an estimated revenue of $61.8 million, which is concerning given that this period was previously anticipated to be the company's strongest due to increased surgical procedures. Additionally, the company has revised its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025 downward to $211-213 million, a decrease from prior estimates of $224-230 million, indicating a notable headwind in the demand for their Lapiplasty 3D Bunion Correction procedure. Furthermore, projected negative year-over-year growth for 2026 raises concerns about Treace's competitive positioning, as its market multiple is expected to remain flat or decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in customer volume and broader trends in elective surgeries.