TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. demonstrates a positive outlook primarily due to a 7% year-over-year increase in active surgeon users, now totaling approximately 3,285, despite a slight decrease in utilization per surgeon. The company has strategically expanded its product offerings beyond the core Lapiplasty system, anticipating long-term revenue growth through improved marketing efforts, sales rep hires, and diversified product sales, which could lead to higher average selling prices and greater market share in the foot and ankle segment. Additionally, there is potential for further revenue growth driven by increased market recovery rates and utilization, alongside the opportunity for improved profit margins as the company enhances its ancillary product sales.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. is facing a challenging outlook as the company projected a revenue decline of approximately 10% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, traditionally its strongest period, with estimated revenues of $61.8 million. The guidance for fiscal year 2025 has also been revised downward, from $224-230 million to $211-213 million, largely due to headwinds impacting the Lapiplasty procedure and a slowdown in elective surgeries. Furthermore, customer feedback indicating a 7% average decline in bunion procedure volumes and expectations of negative growth in 2026 suggest that the company may struggle to maintain its valuation, potentially leading to a flat or declining trading multiple for the foreseeable future.