TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts has demonstrated a solid foundation for growth, as evidenced by a 7.0% year-over-year increase in active surgeon users, reaching approximately 3,285, despite a decline in utilization per surgeon. The company is strategically expanding its market presence through direct-to-consumer programs, enhanced physician education, and a bolstered sales force, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth and market share amid a competitive landscape. Additionally, Treace Medical Concepts has potential for improved margins by increasing average selling prices and successfully marketing ancillary products, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth through diversification beyond its flagship Lapiplasty system.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. is facing a challenging outlook, with projected revenue for the fourth quarter expected to decline approximately 10% year-over-year, totaling $61.8 million, despite historically strong seasonal performance. This decline is attributed to a decrease in bunion procedure volumes, with customer surveys indicating an average reduction of about 7% year-over-year, as patients are deferring elective surgeries. Additionally, the company has revised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance downward to $211-213 million, reflecting continued headwinds related to its Lapiplasty procedure, coupled with negative growth projections for 2026, signaling potential prolonged pressure on its valuation multiples.