TKO Stock Forecast & Price Target

TKO Group Holdings is supported by a premium combat-sports portfolio in UFC and WWE, where 1Q26 revenue/EBITDA reached $401M/$255M and $476M/$256M, underscoring resilient cash generation and industry-leading margins. Underlying demand for live events remains strong, with management targeting about $400M in annual site fee revenue and $1.2B in sponsorship/partnership revenue by 2030, while the UFC rights deal with Paramount and expanding international events should deepen monetization. Additional conviction comes from buyback expansion of about $1B, a ~1.6% annual dividend yield, and early strength in PBR and boxing, which together support durable growth and multiple expansion.

TKO Group Holdings is exposed to several structural risks that could pressure revenue and valuation, led by dependence on renewing key television and media rights agreements, maintaining fan engagement in UFC and WWE, and retaining top talent and brands in competitive combat-sports and wrestling markets. The business also faces margin pressure from heavy event production costs, with UFC 2Q26E EBITDA margin revised to 57.1% from 59.0% after a roughly $30MM near-term hit, while WWE margin expectations were trimmed to 59.2% from 64% as prior assumptions looked too aggressive. Additional downside comes from recession-sensitive consumer spending, geopolitical volatility in regions hosting major events, competition from PFL and other deep-pocketed entrants, and the influence of Silver Lake and potential share sales.