Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tenet Healthcare is supported by resilient operating momentum, with 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.162 billion, up 4% versus Street expectations, and Hospital EBITDA of $678 million showing strong execution despite modest revenue pressure. Its positive outlook is further reinforced by high-acuity throughput gains, expense discipline, and process automation that helped offset HIX headwinds while lifting margins, plus USPI’s structurally attractive growth profile and 1Q26 same-facility surgical net patient service revenue growth of 5.3%. Management’s raised 2026 outlook for revenue of $21.90 billion-$22.50 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.83 billion-$5.03 billion, along with a healthy cash balance and FCF profile, adds flexibility for M&A, buybacks, and further shareholder value creation.

Tenet Healthcare is facing a fundamentally pressured setup because policy uncertainty, especially the expiration of ACA enhanced subsidies, is driving a roughly $250 million 2026 EBITDA headwind tied to an expected ~20% reduction in HIX enrollment and weaker payor mix. 1Q26 already showed the strain, with HIX admissions down about 10% y/y, HIX revenues near 6% of consolidated revenue and down ~9% y/y, while Hospital/USPI EBITDA of $678 million and $484 million reached only 27.5% and 22.0% of full-year guidance, respectively. Beyond reimbursement risk, slowing high-acuity demand, winter weather, respiratory volume weakness, and rising labor and inflationary costs threaten margin expansion, free cash flow, and capital deployment.