TFI International (TFII) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TFI International is benefiting from a clear operational inflection, with Q1/26 adjusted EBITDA of $241MM and EPS of $0.69 both beating expectations, while Q2/26 guidance of $1.50 to $1.60 came in well above the $1.31 street consensus. The outlook is supported by strong margin recovery across segments: LTL is seeing shipment trends turn positive with 600 to 700 basis points of sequential OR improvement, Truckload is gaining from higher productivity and contracting rates, and Logistics is improving on acquisitions and OEM-related demand. Despite a recent rally, the stock still screens at 20.2x 2027 P/E versus higher peer multiples, leaving room for valuation discount contraction as execution improves.

TFI International is viewed negatively because its core U.S. LTL operation remains the key weakness, with 1Q26 adjusted OR at 95.3% and EBITDA down 19% y/y, suggesting density and pricing pressure are still eroding profitability. While Truckload and Logistics outperformed, the broader turnaround is not yet proving durable, and management itself pointed to a transitioning market, weather disruption, and a conservative outlook that underscores execution risk. Added concerns include freight competition, rising costs that cannot be fully passed through, regulatory changes, dependence on acquisitions to drive growth, and the possibility of customer losses or further economic slowdown across North America.