TFI International (TFII) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TFI International is viewed positively because it has delivered two consecutive quarters of results ahead of lowered expectations, including Q1/26 adjusted EPS of $0.69 versus $0.61 consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $241 million, while also issuing Q2/26 EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.60 above the $1.31 street view. The outlook is supported by broad-based operating improvement across Truckload, LTL, and Logistics, with stronger productivity, improving service levels, and pricing inflection helped by capacity tightening and delayed rate actions, including expected consolidated OR improvement of 400-500 bps in Q2. Despite shares having run 40% from March lows, the stock still screens at a valuation discount to peers, around 20.2x 2027 P/E versus 31x for LTL peers and 24x for TL peers, leaving room for further rerating as execution continues.

TFI International is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as its key Less-Than-Truckload segment posted EBITDA of $79MM, down year over year on softer freight volumes, severe weather, and tariff-related demand uncertainty. Despite a 3% revenue decline improving from Q4’s 10% drop, LTL still carried a 95.3% operating ratio, while Logistics and Truckload strength only partly offset the miss and adj. EBITDA still fell 7% to $241M. Free cash flow declined 35% year over year, and with turnaround progress slowing in 2024 and U.S. truckload performance still under pressure, the business looks operationally fragile.