TE Stock Forecast & Price Target

T1 Energy Inc. has maintained its 2025 guidance while projecting significant shipment growth of approximately 25% CAGR through 2028, bolstered by the benefits of the 45X program. The company anticipates substantial margin improvements, estimating gross margins to rise from approximately 25.6% in 2026 to around 36.9% by 2028, supported by the operational commencement of in-house cell manufacturing. Additionally, the substantial increase in the five-year load growth forecast in the U.S. from 24GW to 166GW indicates a robust demand environment, driven by key megatrends that position T1 Energy to capitalize on rising electricity needs.

T1 Energy Inc. has reported a concerning deterioration in financial performance, as evidenced by a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA to -$14.6 million in Q3'25 from $1.0 million in Q2'25, coupled with a widening earnings per share loss from -20 cents to -81 cents during the same period. The company's outlook is further exacerbated by macroeconomic challenges, including potential reductions in government financial support for solar initiatives, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and a projected decrease in global demand for solar modules, which may lead to an oversupply and lower average selling prices. Additionally, T1 Energy faces heightened risks related to polysilicon pricing dynamics and foreign exchange fluctuations, leading to downward revisions in its EBITDA estimates for FY25 and FY26 by approximately 28% and 8%, respectively.