Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Toronto-Dominion Bank has demonstrated a notable uptick in its personal and commercial banking segment, with the return on equity rising to 3.19%, indicative of its strong business performance. The bank's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the fiscal year 2025 have been raised by 2% to $8.19, while the fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate sees a 3% increase to $8.86, reflecting improved credit outlook and consistent profitability in Canadian operations. This positive momentum is supported by TD’s robust market position and diversified revenue streams, with over 50% of its income derived from its stronghold in the Canadian banking sector and approximately 44% from its US operations, spanning a significant geographical footprint.

The summary highlights that Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) reported a core cash earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20, which exceeded both internal estimates and consensus expectations by 5% and 7% respectively. Despite this positive earnings performance, it is important to consider the broader context of TD's dependence on the Canadian market for more than 50% of its revenue and its substantial exposure to the U.S. market, accounting for approximately 44% of its revenue. The reliance on these markets, along with potential economic headwinds, raises concerns about the bank's overall resilience and future growth prospects, thereby contributing to a negative outlook on its stock.