Tactile Systems (TCMD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tactile Systems Technology Inc. (TCMD) has demonstrated a robust financial outlook, with an increased fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance raised by $6.5 million to a range of $317-$321 million, driven by growth in the AffloVest and lymphedema business segments. The company's gross margins are projected to remain strong at approximately 75%, while operational expenses are anticipated to grow at a rate of 11% year-over-year, reflecting strategic investments in workforce expansion and productivity enhancements. Additionally, TCMD is benefiting from favorable market dynamics, including improved patient access resulting from new regulations and technology advancements, positioning the company for sustained growth into fiscal year 2026.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Tactile Systems Technology Inc. due to a downward revision in Lymphedema sales growth expectations, resulting in lower projected revenue for 4Q25 despite higher sales in Airway Clearance. Additionally, while the company reported better-than-expected gross and operating margins, concerns remain regarding slower adoption in commercial channels, potential sales force inefficiencies, and competitive pressures that may hinder future performance. Moreover, the lack of visibility into the business following consecutive earnings guidance reductions raises further concerns about the sustainability of revenue, which heavily relies on Lymphedema sales that constitute approximately 85% of total revenues.