TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TriCo Bancshares has demonstrated strong loan growth, achieving an 8% increase on a last quarter annualized basis, largely driven by a robust 28% increase in loan originations and draws, highlighting the company's effective lending strategy. The firm has also shown resilience in its fee income, with a 6.3% quarter-over-quarter rise in core fees to $17.1 million, which is expected to remain stable due to strategic positioning below the $10 billion threshold by year-end 2025. Additionally, improved net interest income (NII) and lower non-interest expenses (NIE) have led to raised earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026, reflecting an optimistic financial trajectory for the company.

TriCo Bancshares faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily influenced by a potential economic slowdown which may escalate nonperforming assets and net charge-offs, leading to a decline in net income. Additionally, any decrease in interest rates could compress the company's net interest margin, adversely impacting net interest income and overall earnings. Furthermore, the company's operational and financial risks may increase due to ongoing acquisition activities, coupled with a regional economic context that has seen Northern and Central California markets experience more pronounced downturns compared to other parts of the state.