Taboola (TBLA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Taboola.com is fundamentally attractive because it combines a resilient, cash-generative advertising model with improving profitability, as 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $55.5MM beat expectations and FY26 guidance still calls for $228–240MM of EBITDA, while ex-TAC gross profit guidance was raised to $772–783MM even after the Google policy change and publisher cleanup reduced gross revenue. Its positive outlook is also supported by strategic expansion beyond traditional native ads through Realize, including a first-of-its-kind deal with a top 10–15 U.S. publisher and another major publisher opportunity that management says could generate 2-5x native revenue and materially expand wallet share across display, vertical, and native inventory. Finally, the company’s strong capital return profile—about 9.4MM shares repurchased in 2Q26, $100.6MM returned year to date in '26, and $114MM remaining under authorization—along with 2,081 scaled advertisers and a large installed publisher network, suggests disciplined execution and multiple levers for long-term value creation.

Taboola.com is viewed negatively because its growth remains highly dependent on continued Open Web expansion and new publisher/advertiser adoption, yet the company faces meaningful structural risks from Google’s faster-than-expected deprecation of Explore More, broader changes in browsers and mobile ecosystems, and the persistent threat of ad blocking that could reduce traffic and monetization. Even though 2Q26 ex-TAC gross profit of $192.4MM rose 11.8% and EBITDA of $55.5MM beat expectations, gross profit still missed because of lower-than-expected gross revenue, the year was hit by about $91M of revenue reduction tied to Explore More and China website removals, and management flagged a tighter outlook with greater uncertainty around advertising demand, LLMs, and Open Web traffic. The investment case is further weakened by dependence on minimum guarantees and exclusive publisher agreements, sensitivity to higher traffic acquisition costs and macro weakness, and execution risk around Yahoo integration, while longer-term estimates were already cut with gross revenue, x-TAC gross profit, and EBITDA now modeled slightly lower on average from '26E-'31E.