Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is well positioned by XDEMVY’s strong commercial traction, with quarterly product sales above $100M and management guiding 2026 net product sales of approximately $670 million to $700 million, implying robust year-over-year growth of more than 50%. The outlook is supported by expanding prescription depth, patient awareness from the active DTC campaign, and the planned addition of 15-20 key account leaders by 2H26, all of which should deepen penetration into the estimated 9 million-patient opportunity. Beyond XDEMVY, the acquisition of iRenix and IRX-101 adds a second growth platform with positive Phase 2/3b data, including statistically significant reductions in pain and corneal staining, strengthening the long-term pipeline.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is viewed negatively because the investment case depends heavily on XDEMVY achieving ambitious peak commercial revenue assumptions, yet prescription tracking and inventory normalization already suggest softer near-term demand, prompting a lower quarterly revenue estimate from $151.8M to $145.0M. Revenue recognition also lags prescriptions because it occurs when product is shipped into the channel, so a flat 1Q26 and the target of only 2.5 weeks of inventory imply limited momentum rather than accelerating sell-through. More broadly, the company remains exposed to financing risk and the uncertainty of continued development and commercialization, which is especially concerning for an early commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company.