AT&T (T) Stock Forecast & Price Target

AT&T is supported by a stronger core wireless franchise, where 2Q26 postpaid net adds of 432K, churn of 0.86%, and postpaid phone ARPU growth of 1.7% show effective base management and pricing power despite competitive pressure. Its growth mix is improving through convergence, with fiber-plus-wireless households, expanding business services, and a broader connectivity strategy that should benefit from the FCC-approved $23B EchoStar spectrum sale and the company’s push into dense fiber infrastructure. The outlook is further reinforced by management’s confidence in free cash flow, highlighted by a $10B 2026 buyback target and the ability to cut about $6B of costs through legacy network decommissioning.

AT&T is facing a challenging fundamental setup because its core wireless business, while still roughly 70% of revenue, must compete against cable and other wireless rivals while also funding heavy network investment and legacy copper retirements. Although broadband/convergence adds were solid, fiber ARPU fell 1.3% to $72.29 and management is leaning on discounts to drive a converged base that is only 42.5% of customers, which pressures near-term monetization and margins. Regulatory uncertainty, higher capex and opex tied to new technology deployments, and the faster decline in legacy copper revenue than expenses could delay cost savings and keep valuation under pressure.