SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SPS Commerce has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a total revenue increase of 16.0% year-over-year and recurring revenue growth of 20.8%, highlighting the effectiveness of its subscription-based model. The adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $246.3 million and $266.7 million, reflecting an increase of 11.2%, while the gross margin has improved to 71.2%, rising 190 basis points year-over-year. Furthermore, the company is on track to normalize organic customer additions, with expectations of reaching annual levels around 1,300 customers by 2025, which could indicate a return to pre-pandemic growth dynamics.

SPS Commerce Inc. has lowered its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $229.7-$231.7 million, reflecting a slight margin improvement yet indicative of revised expectations stemming from underperformance in its revenue recovery segment. This adjustment, compounded by a reduction in FY25 revenue guidance to $751.6-$753.6 million and a decrease in expected growth rate to 18.0%, highlights significant challenges in meeting prior revenue targets. The company's shares experienced a substantial drop of approximately 26% following the announcement of weaker-than-expected revenue results for 3Q25, driven by disappointing contributions from the Carbon6 business and ongoing economic uncertainties.