SPRY Stock Forecast & Price Target

ARS Pharmaceuticals is viewed positively because neffy is gaining payer access, including Florida Medicaid effective July 1, 2026, while broader commercial coverage remains in place and a $199 retail cash-pay option supports near-term demand growth. The investment case is strengthened by differentiated, needle-free intranasal epinephrine with broad usability advantages, ALK’s $145M upfront payment and future royalties, and management’s continued investment discipline that keeps the path to 2027 breakeven intact. Additional upside comes from underappreciated pipeline optionality in CSU, where Ph.2b interim data are expected in 4Q26 and prior Phase 2 results were compelling, alongside non-risk adjusted peak US sales estimates of roughly $1.1B for neffy and about $370M for CSU.

ARS Pharmaceuticals is facing a cautious outlook because the absence of new July 1 commercial formulary additions or coverage decisions removes a near-term catalyst for neffy adoption, while ongoing payer hurdles, reimbursement friction, and physician confidence concerns could slow US launch uptake. The thesis is further pressured by lowered neffy penetration assumptions, reflecting delayed commercial upside, and by reduced estimates tied to access challenges even as 2026 OpEx is guided to about $248M with a cash-flow breakeven goal for 2027. Competitive risk also remains meaningful, since late-stage non-injection epinephrine products could limit market share or force pricing pressure, making sustained revenue acceleration harder to achieve.