SJM Stock Forecast & Price Target

J.M. Smucker is positioned for positive growth with reported sales expected to increase between 2% to 4%, even factoring in a 1.5% headwind due to divestitures. The company anticipates significant pricing benefits from coffee price increases totaling approximately 20% in the U.S., which will contribute to a solid comparable sales growth guidance range of 3.5% to 5.5%. Additionally, free cash flow projections for FY26 are robust at $875 million, marking an increase of $58 million from FY25, attributed to a decrease in capital expenditure as a percentage of sales.

J.M. Smucker's financial performance is under pressure, as evidenced by a 13% decline in 4Q25 EPS compared to the prior year, despite exceeding both internal and consensus estimates due to stronger gross margins. The company's initial FY26 guidance projects an 11% decline in EPS, largely driven by increased volume elasticity from higher coffee pricing, the adverse effects of tariffs, and reduced profitability within the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. Additionally, a 24% drop in EPS reported for the second quarter highlights ongoing challenges, particularly in managing coffee costs and maintaining volume amidst pricing pressures.