SITE Stock Forecast & Price Target

SiteOne Landscape Supply is demonstrating a positive financial trajectory, with a reported EBITDA growth of 1% and an expected EBITDA of $410 million for 2025, marking an improvement in margin compared to previous estimates. The company's volume growth of 2% during the quarter and an optimistic outlook for continued positive volumes suggest a strengthening market position and share gains. Additionally, the organization's guidance for organic daily sales growth in the second half of the year reflects a robust performance expectation, with anticipated growth in the fourth quarter adjusted upward to 2.5%.

The financial outlook for SiteOne Landscape Supply appears negative due to a projected decline in FY’26 estimates, with growth expectations decreasing from +1% to +0.5% due to a weaker housing market impact on new residential demands. Additionally, anticipated deflation in grass seed prices, worsening by approximately 10-20% year-over-year in the latter half of the year, is expected to suppress overall pricing power and contribute to subdued profitability metrics. Management has also revised the EBITDA guidance downward, indicating a midpoint of $410 million, which falls short of both previous projections and market expectations, signifying broader challenges in sustaining revenue growth amidst competitive pricing dynamics.