SIRI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sirius XM Holdings has demonstrated a robust financial performance, evidenced by a 50% year-over-year increase in podcast revenue and a total subscriber base of 32.808 million, marking a slight increase. The company has achieved nominal growth in Pandora and off-platform revenues, reaching $548 million, while also noting a positive trajectory in ad revenues, which surpassed expectations and increased year-over-year. Additionally, management's strategic shift to introduce lower-priced subscription plans indicates a potential for improved average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, as the expansion of ad-supported services has not negatively impacted existing full-priced subscriptions, providing a promising outlook for subscriber growth and revenue diversification.

Sirius XM Holdings has experienced a significant year-to-date decline of 7%, following a larger 58% drop in 2024, primarily attributed to a projected loss of self-pay subscribers, estimated at 530,000 for 2025, bringing the total to 31.1 million. The company reported a decrease in yearly EBITDA of 4.8%, totaling $668 million, alongside a 1.8% decline in total revenues to $2,138 million, driven by subscription revenue losses and ongoing subscriber pressures. Furthermore, despite a decrease in capital expenditures expected to increase free cash flow by nearly $300 million to $1.5 billion by 2027, the overall revenue outlook remains negative due to anticipated subscriber declines.