Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Steven Madden Ltd is experiencing a positive trajectory in its core business, with management projecting mid-single to high-single digit revenue growth in 2026, following an 11% growth on a pro forma basis in 2025. The company has seen notable performance improvements across its distribution channels, including a significant near 80% increase in Direct-to-Consumer sales largely driven by incremental sales from the Kurt Geiger brand, and a return to positive growth in Wholesale. Additionally, the company reported an expansion in Q3 gross margins to 43.4%, exceeding both company estimates and consensus forecasts, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability progression.

Steven Madden Ltd is facing significant revenue challenges, particularly in its private label business, which contracted approximately 15% to $355 million in 2025, with a projected further decline of around 20% in 2026. The company is also expected to experience nearly 300 basis points of operating margin pressure, anticipated to drop to 6.2%, which is lower than market forecasts and a considerable decline from the previous year’s 9.0%. Additionally, the ongoing shift in sourcing away from China, compounded by tariff-driven cost inflation and order cancellations, has resulted in temporary shipment delays and gross margin pressures, with Q3 gross margins down more than 300 basis points year-over-year.