Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Steven Madden is supported by a favorable fashion rotation away from casual athletic styles toward elevated footwear, which is driving share gains, stronger sell-through, and a restocking cycle across the brand’s core assortment. The company’s execution appears solid enough to support a Q3 beat, with estimated EPS of $0.75 versus $0.43 last year and revenue of $778.5M, while gross margin and SG&A leverage are expected to improve despite tariff pressure. Its outlook is further strengthened by Kurt Geiger’s accretive contribution, improving DTC momentum, and a healthier wholesale backdrop that could support a raise to guidance and continued margin recovery.

Steven Madden is exposed to material fundamental pressure from tariffs, weakening U.S. consumer confidence, and tighter inventory management by wholesale partners, all of which can suppress revenue and reduce sell-in momentum. Wholesale customers have been very cautious lately, limiting replenishment orders and creating headwinds across the company’s largest revenue channel, while the risk that management cannot fully offset tariff costs adds further margin pressure. Under these bear-case assumptions, EPS could fall as low as $1.75 next year, signaling a meaningful deterioration in profitability if demand and cost pressures persist.