Surgery Partners (SGRY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Surgery Partners is favorably positioned because the Idaho Falls divestiture sharpens its profile into a more focused ASC pure-play, removes a key investor overhang, and improves the balance sheet by about 30bps while cutting Medicaid exposure to below 2%. The company’s fundamentals remain attractive, with 2Q26 revenue of $849 million and adjusted EBITDA of $125 million ahead of consensus, supported by +5.0% same-facility revenue growth, +4.8% revenue per case growth, and a strong physician recruiting engine that added 191 new physicians in 2Q and 330 YTD. Its outlook is further strengthened by underpenetrated outpatient surgery demand, payer incentives toward site-of-care shifts, and management’s confidence in sustained double-digit EBITDA growth driven by high-acuity procedures, de novo expansion, and operating discipline.

Surgery Partners is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop as management cut guidance to $3,080-$3,180MM of revenue and at least $489MM of adjusted EBITDA, with pro-forma 2026 figures excluding Idaho Falls falling to $2.60-$2.67B and at least $414MM, signaling less near-term operating momentum. The bearish view is reinforced by the expectation that FY27E EBITDA could come in 10% below the base case on slower asset ramp-ups, recruiting headwinds, and difficulty scaling cardio expansion, while a ~10.5x multiple contraction reflects fading confidence in execution. High leverage, revenue concentration, integration risk, and persistent labor cost inflation add further downside risk, especially as reimbursement pressure and uncertainty around elective volume recovery could compress margins.