SBA Communications (SBAC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SBA Communications maintains a robust portfolio of approximately 45,000 wireless towers, with a significant concentration in the United States, where it owns over 17,000 towers that contribute around 75% of its leasing revenue. As the company operates as a real estate investment trust, it has shown improvements in its cash flow trajectory and possesses a healthy balance sheet, factors that contribute to a positive outlook. The expected reversal of current market dynamics in the latter half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 suggests a potential increase in AFFO multiples, which further supports the attractiveness of the stock despite revenue growth not fully returning to peak levels.

SBA Communications faces significant headwinds due to its concentrated customer base, which primarily relies on a few major mobile carriers accounting for most of its revenue, particularly from its U.S. operations that generate roughly 75% of leasing revenue from over 17,000 towers. The company is also negatively impacted by macroeconomic factors such as elevated interest rates and a potential slowdown in global expansion, exacerbated by the effects of previous aggressive 5G deployments and customer churn from the consolidation between T-Mobile USA and Sprint. Additionally, challenges related to reduced mobile broadband growth, a shift towards satellite broadband, and limited allocation of new frequencies for cell sites further hinder the company's growth prospects, contributing to a cautious outlook on its stock.