SAIC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Science Applications Intl is fundamentally attractive because it combines a large, mission-critical government services footprint with improving execution in core defense and intelligence programs, where revenue generation is strongest and on-contract growth is normalizing back to pre-DOGE levels. The company’s financial profile is also strengthening, with total revenue up 1.5% year over year to $1,906M, adj. EBITDA of $222M versus $175M expected, adj. EPS up 68% year over year to $3.23, and RPO coverage of current-year guidance remaining “off the charts,” which supports visibility despite bookings still being affected by award delays. In addition, management’s disciplined AI adoption, early quantum investments, and Project Orbit—targeting $150M of annual run-rate savings with about two-thirds reinvested—should improve efficiency, accelerate the shift toward higher-quality fixed-price work, and support mid-10% adjusted EBITDA margins next year with a path to 11% in FY30.

Science Applications Intl is viewed negatively because its core business has struggled to produce consistent organic growth over the past five years, and management’s own guidance still points to revenue of $7.0B-$7.2B in FY27 with an implied 0%-2% organic decline, reflecting the loss of the RITS contract and recompete timing uncertainty. Although FY27 profitability and cash flow guidance improved to Adj. EBITDA of $720M-$730M, Adj. EPS of $9.90-$10.10, and FCF above $600M, the company’s margin profile remains only modestly improving, with an implied 10.2% EBITDA margin and mixed segment performance that showed D&I margin improvement but Civilian margin pressure. The bearish view is further supported by its less attractive contract mix, relatively high leverage, and the expectation that it will continue to underperform Government Services peers because the portfolio appears structurally slower-growing and lower-margin despite trading at a discount.