Saia (SAIA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Saia has shown significant operational improvement, with volumes and margins at ramping facilities increasing over 100 basis points sequentially in the third quarter of 2025, contributing to a collective operating ratio falling below 95 for the first time. The company has experienced year-over-year weight growth since August 2024, attributed to favorable comparisons due to competitors’ lower volumes and strategic adjustments in freight mix, while contract renewals yielded an average growth of over 4%. Furthermore, despite higher sequential costs, Saia managed a 20 basis point improvement in consolidated operating ratio against typical seasonal patterns, highlighting its ability to increase market share and sustain positive pricing in the competitive LTL sector.

Saia has experienced a decline in headline revenue per hundredweight (CWT), falling 0.1% year-over-year, reflecting challenges related to mix changes within its growing network. The company's operating ratio (OR) has also deteriorated by 250 basis points due to flat revenue against a structurally higher cost base, indicating inefficiencies that are affecting profitability compared to its non-union LTL peers. Further compounding these issues, tonnage and shipments decreased by 1.5% and 1.9% year-over-year, respectively, raising concerns about the company's performance and ability to generate sustainable earnings growth in the current weak industrial freight environment.