Saia (SAIA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Saia's financial performance demonstrates a positive trajectory, with facility volumes increasing and operating margins improving sequentially by over 100 basis points in the third quarter of 2025, leading to a collective operating ratio of sub-95. The company has also shown resilience in its freight mix, resulting in year-over-year weight growth since August 2024, despite a slowdown in overall growth, and contract renewals have averaged over 4% growth, highlighting robust demand for shipments. Furthermore, Saia's consolidated operating ratio improved by 20 basis points compared to the previous quarter, reflecting effective management of operational expenses and a strong position in a favorable pricing environment within the LTL sector.

Saia's financial performance has shown signs of distress, as headline revenue per hundredweight (CWT), excluding fuel, declined by 0.1% year-over-year. The company's operating ratio (OR) has deteriorated by 250 basis points, indicating flat revenue against an increased cost base, positioning Saia with one of the highest ORs among its non-union less-than-truckload peers. Furthermore, a decline in tonnage and shipments by 1.5% and 1.9% year-over-year, coupled with significant investments in a challenging industrial freight environment, suggests that Saia's long-term margin potential remains constrained in the near term, resulting in stock underperformance relative to its transport group.