RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts is supported by a resilient, gaming-centric Las Vegas locals franchise that delivered the highest Q1 net revenue and second highest Adj. EBITDA in company history, while core slot and table play remained stable and food-and-beverage spending held up well. Near-term construction at Green Valley Ranch, Sunset Station, and Durango may weigh on 2026 and into 2027, but management is reinvesting about $550M in 2026 and 2027 to lift ADR, traffic, and pricing, with 2027 modeled for 10% EBITDA growth and 2028 returns above 15% on invested capital. The balance sheet and cash flow outlook are also constructive, with leverage expected to decline to 3.6x by 2027E, free cash flow projected above $500M annually, and capital returns already evident through buybacks and dividends.

Red Rock Resorts is facing a negative outlook because 1Q26 EBITDA of $213M missed consensus by 3% and adjusted EBITDAR margins of about 42% deteriorated, even as revenue rose only 2%, showing that demand is not offsetting operating friction. The bigger issue is that construction disruption at Green Valley Ranch and Durango is now expected to persist longer and cost more than previously thought, with GVR still near $9M and Durango adding a further $2–3M headwind, delaying earnings normalization. Its heavy reliance on the Las Vegas Locals market leaves it exposed to macro shocks, higher interest rates, and potential smoking-ban risk, while recent margin pressure and seasonal Q2 weakness suggest limited near-term catalyst support.