RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts Inc. has shown a positive financial trajectory, with notable year-over-year growth in Las Vegas revenues and EBITDA, reflecting a broad-based strength across its customer base and effective cost management, evidenced by a margin expansion of 110 basis points in 3Q25. Additionally, the company reported a substantial increase in new member sign-ups, marking a 10% year-over-year rise, which indicates strong customer engagement and participation. Furthermore, the firm is committed to returning capital to shareholders, as demonstrated by the increase in its quarterly dividend while continuing to invest in its expansion projects, such as the upcoming $385 million second phase at the Durango property.

Red Rock Resorts is projected to experience an approximately 10% sequential contraction in EBITDA from the second to the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to ongoing construction disruptions at multiple properties, which are expected to result in nearly $10 million of EBITDA headwinds. Despite a reduction in leverage to 3.89x and resumption of share repurchase activity, concerns persist regarding the potential negative effects of documented weaknesses in the Las Vegas Strip on the local market. Additionally, while management expresses confidence in the resilience of the Las Vegas locals market, the ongoing operational challenges and revenue pressures cast a negative outlook on the company's financial performance.