ResMed (RMD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

ResMed is viewed positively because it operates in a structurally expanding market driven by rising sleep apnea diagnosis, aging populations, obesity, and only a 20% diagnosis rate in the U.S., leaving substantial room for penetration gains. Its fundamentals remain resilient, with 4Q26 revenue of $1,464m, gross profit margin of 62.3%, and underlying EPS of $2.95, while FY27 guidance of $5.75-$5.85b revenue and $12.00-$12.25 EPS signals continued growth despite the Astral remediation and competitive noise. The outlook is further supported by recurring masks and SaaS revenue, healthy cash flow, R&D investment in AI and next-generation products, and disciplined capital returns, including about $1.5b of expected buybacks in FY27.

ResMed is facing a weaker fundamental setup because Americas device growth of 6.1% YoY and mask revenue growth of 9.7% YoY both missed expectations, while the 4Q26 gross margin of 62.3% also fell short amid component inflation, freight pressure, and FX drag. The $41.9m Astral recall provision, a $75m FY26 revenue base tied to Astral, and an expected 130bps revenue headwind in FY27 add execution risk just as management guides FY27 revenue of $5.75-5.85B, below the Street’s pre-call view. Even with strong RoW growth and digital health initiatives, the company still faces potential FDA actions, competitive pressures, and uncertain GLP-1 effects that could limit operating leverage and cloud the growth profile.