RLJ Stock Forecast & Price Target

RLJ Lodging Trust is well positioned to benefit from improving transient and urban lodging demand, with 2026 Adjusted EBITDA estimated at $352 million and AFFO/share at $1.49, while 3Q26 RevPAR appears to be tracking well ahead of consensus. Its portfolio emphasis on premium-branded, rooms-oriented hotels in strong urban markets, combined with brand strength under Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt, supports higher margins and pricing power as business travel, conventions, and special events lift occupancy. Financial flexibility, lower supply growth, and upside from conversions, repositionings, and cluster efficiencies further strengthen the outlook, especially if RevPAR and operating trends continue outperforming expectations.

RLJ Lodging Trust is burdened by a negative outlook because its near-term earnings are vulnerable to renovation disruption, especially the Wyndham Boston conversion to Hilton’s Tapestry Collection, which begins in late 2026 and is expected to create lost EBITDA in 2027 even as it may ultimately add more than 40% stabilized EBITDA. The thesis is further weakened by its heavy exposure to Upper Upscale and Upscale hotels, where RevPAR growth appears less compelling than Luxury, while 80% of demand is transient and highly sensitive to macro shocks, business-travel softness, inflation, fuel prices, and geopolitical stress. Investor sentiment is also challenged by hybrid lodging REIT structure, difficult 2027 comparisons, and market-specific headwinds such as elevated operating costs in NYC and L.A. and continued weakness in Austin due to the convention center closure.