Redwire Corp (RDW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Redwire Corp is poised for substantial revenue growth, with street estimates projecting a 16% increase in 2026 revenue to $465 million, compared to a run-rate of approximately $400 million in the latter half of 2025. The company's strong revenue momentum is underscored by a 50.7% year-over-year increase in total sales for the third quarter of 2025, despite falling short of market expectations. Factors contributing to a positive outlook include potential margin expansion driven by Edge Autonomy, favorable trends in the drone and space sectors, and opportunities for increased market penetration, which may support even greater growth.

Redwire Corp's revenue projections for 2026 have been reduced to $475 million, a decline from previous estimates of $520 million, which reflects ongoing challenges with government contracting delays and award timing that have negatively impacted performance. The company's adjusted EBITDA of $(2.6) million fell significantly short of the Street's expectations of $4.3 million, which, combined with lowered revenue guidance for 2025 to a midpoint of $330 million—down 18% from prior estimates—highlights persistent financial difficulties. Additionally, the company's outlook is further compromised by competitive pressures in the defense autonomy sector, increased funding challenges within civil space, and hurdles in securing significant contracts with defense customers.