Redwire Corp (RDW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Redwire Corp has demonstrated impressive growth, with total sales increasing by 50.7% year-over-year to $103.7 million in 3Q25, highlighting its significant market traction despite falling short of analyst estimates. The company also shows potential for margin expansion, with projected improvements in gross and EBITDA margins driven by new product offerings and efficiencies from the Edge initiative, as well as supportive factors such as increased economies of scale and successful mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, positive cash flow prospects for 2025 and ongoing developments in its space manufacturing unit provide a strong foundation for sustained revenue growth and competitiveness in the evolving space economy.

Redwire Corporation experienced a significant decline in stock value, dropping 30.9% following the release of its second-quarter earnings, which revealed substantial operational challenges compared to the Russell 2000's minor decrease. The company's revenue fell short of expectations due to unfavorable EAC adjustments totaling $25.2 million, leading to negative gross margins and prompting a downward revision of 2025 revenue guidance from $421.2 million to $410.0 million. Additionally, Redwire reported an EBITDA loss of $27.4 million, diverging markedly from initial forecasts of a positive $3.3 million, further highlighting the financial strain caused by government contracting delays and other performance issues.