Rogers Communications (RCI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rogers Communications is viewed positively because its core telecom franchise combines scale and durability as Canada’s largest national wireless operator and an incumbent cable provider in key regions, while 11 million postpaid and 1 million prepaid wireless customers, 5 million broadband customers, and nearly 11 million homes passed provide a large recurring-revenue base. The outlook is further supported by improving free cash flow and balance-sheet repair, as 2026 capex guidance was cut to $2.5B-$2.7B from $3.3B-$3.5B, free cash flow was raised to $4.1B-$4.3B, and roughly $800MM of incremental annual free cash flow is expected to go toward debt repayment, aiding a de-levering path toward ~3x leverage. Additional upside comes from valuable optionality in sports and media, including a 75% stake in MLSE, ownership of the Blue Jays and other media assets, and a potential minority-interest crystallization that management has suggested could support a valuation above $20B, while organic cable service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of +2% YoY and expected 2026 wireless market expansion of +2.0%-2.5% reinforce the operating case.

Rogers Communications is viewed negatively because its core wireless and internet franchises face clear structural pressure from lower ARPU, weaker wireless network margins, and slowing postpaid net additions, while FTTH competition is expected to restrain Internet revenue and subscriber growth. The downside case implies only modest service revenue around 1,938, 1,929, and 1,924 across the cited periods, but the larger concern is that multiple compression can occur if the company remains on a lower growth trajectory, amplified by a dual-class share structure that keeps control concentrated with the Rogers family. Although the company has credible ESG governance and long-term targets, including a 50% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 versus 2019 levels, these initiatives do not offset the fundamental earnings and valuation risks from intensifying competition, affordability pressures, and the need for continued heavy investment in network expansion.