Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc has demonstrated a strong financial performance, with a revised forecast for FY26 revenue estimating $1,280 million, indicating a robust growth rate of 44% year-over-year. The company also reported Q3 subscription revenue of $336.4 million, which represents a significant 52% increase year-over-year and surpassed prior estimates, benefiting from cloud conversions and maintenance revenues. Furthermore, the rise in customers generating over $100K in subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by 27% year-over-year to 2,505, coupled with an increase in total revenue to $350.2 million, reinforces a positive outlook for the firm amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Rubrik Inc. has projected an 18% year-over-year decline in net new subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for the upcoming third quarter, despite experiencing a 13% year-over-year increase in the preceding quarter. The company's history of operating with significant losses further compounds the negative outlook, with expectations of a decreasing contribution margin in subscription ARR due to expense timing and sequential declines anticipated in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Several key risks, including macroeconomic challenges, rapid technological changes, and competition, could adversely impact Rubrik's performance, suggesting a cautious approach to its future financial health.