Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. has demonstrated robust financial performance, reporting a substantial 52% year-over-year growth in Q3 subscription revenue, amounting to $336.4 million, which exceeded forecasts by 9.4%. The company's revenue outlook for FY26 has been revised upward to $1.280 billion, reflecting a projected growth rate of 44% year-over-year, alongside an improved operating margin of (4.6)%, a significant improvement from the previous estimate of (8.9)%. Additionally, the increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from customers generating over $100,000 to 2,505, representing a 27% increase year-over-year, indicates strong demand and customer expansion within Rubrik's cybersecurity solutions.

Rubrik Inc. is facing significant challenges, as indicated by the guidance for a projected 18% decline in net new subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) year-over-year for F3Q26, despite a previous year-over-year increase in 2Q. Additionally, the company's subscription ARR contribution margin is expected to decrease sequentially in FY1Q27, indicating potential ongoing profitability issues, compounded by consistent large losses reported on its income statement. The company also encounters multiple key risks, including macroeconomic uncertainties, the pace of digital transformation, and increased competition, which may further impact its financial performance and outlook.