Restaurant Brands (QSR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Restaurant Brands International (RBI) reported improved operational focus and significant capital investments, contributing to its outperformance in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) category, with international same-store sales (SSS) improving from +2.6% to +4.2%. RBI achieved over 5% unit growth ahead of expectations, driven by normalized closures and an acceleration in openings across its brands, particularly with the strategic refranchising in China. The company’s ability to drive sales through international growth and maintain strong SSS performance across its key banners positions it favorably against peers, especially given its valuation discount of over 30%.

Restaurant Brands International faces a negative outlook due to a significant slowdown in same-store sales and reduced unit growth driven by macroeconomic challenges and franchisee profitability issues. The company is experiencing adverse impacts from tariffs on the Tim Hortons supply chain, coupled with declining consumer discretionary spending favoring at-home food preparation, which may further strain revenue. Additionally, there are rising concerns regarding deteriorating relationships with franchisees and the inability to effectively sell or refranchise U.S. restaurants, all contributing to an increasingly difficult operating environment.