Restaurant Brands (QSR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Restaurant Brands International (RBI) is positioned as a prominent player in the global restaurant industry, generating approximately $44 billion in system sales across over 32,000 locations and achieving a solid same-store sales (SSS) average of +4.3% over the last eight quarters. The company's strategic focus on operational improvements and rapid unit growth, aiming for over 5% growth before 2028, is bolstered by its successful performance in international markets, particularly as it leverages partnerships in key regions such as China. Furthermore, RBI's current valuation reflects a significant discount compared to peers, underpinning its potential for outperformance, especially in a dynamic market environment characterized by both international expansion opportunities and resilience in consumer spending.

Restaurant Brands International faces a negative outlook due to several fundamental issues, including a significant slowdown in same-store sales and lower unit growth driven by macroeconomic factors and decreased franchisee profitability. Additionally, the company is contending with a greater-than-anticipated impact from tariffs on the Tim Hortons supply chain, along with declining consumer discretionary spending favoring home-cooked meals, which has further strained relationships with franchisees. Challenges in international unit economics, rising operational costs, and a complex business environment contribute to persistent negative sentiment in the sector, compounded by expected future EBIT headwinds.