Qualys (QLYS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Qualys demonstrated a robust performance in the third quarter with an 11% year-over-year growth in current billings, indicating a significant re-acceleration from the previous quarter's 8% growth. The company's management raised its 2025 revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in the business's trajectory and performance, further supported by improvements in both gross retention and net revenue retention. Additionally, the introduction of the QFlex platform pricing model provides customers increased flexibility and access to various modules, potentially driving greater adoption of Qualys’ non-VM products and supporting faster revenue growth.

The financial analyst identifies a negative outlook for Qualys due to a revised valuation metric, decreasing from approximately 16x to around 13x EV/C26E EBITDA, reflecting less favorable peer market multiples and signaling potential volatility in subscription renewals. Additionally, there are concerns regarding Qualys's market perception, as the company's ability to maintain or grow its subscription base could be jeopardized if it fails to establish a robust platform for consolidated spending. Finally, despite achieving a higher than expected non-GAAP operating margin of 47.1%, the analyst notes that the current focus in the cybersecurity market does not prioritize vulnerability management solutions, which could hinder revenue growth in the near term.