QCR Holdings (QCRH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

QCR Hldgs is supported by a differentiated LIHTC platform that ties 31.5% of loans to affordable housing, enabling capital-efficient growth through securitizations, loan sales, and strong developer relationships rather than relying solely on traditional balance-sheet expansion. Adjusted loan growth has run near 10% over three and five years, with LIHTC loans growing about 11% and capital recycling helping fund future originations, while fee income is increasingly meaningful at an estimated 28% of revenue in 2027. Its outlook is further strengthened by a $7.7 billion wealth management franchise, $60-$70 million of anticipated capital markets revenue, 10.7% CET1 capital, and forecasts for 2027 ROA of 1.42%, ROTCE of 13.4%, and roughly 10% annualized tangible book value growth.

QCR Hldgs is viewed negatively because its funding profile remains structurally expensive, with total deposit costs of 2.41% in 2Q26 versus a 1.61% peer median and retail deposits ex-CDs at just ~12% of total deposits, limiting margin flexibility. Although noninterest-bearing balances have improved since 1Q25 and brokered deposits fell to ~2% in 2Q26, the company still runs with a high loan-to-deposit ratio near 95% and has not shown a meaningful shift away from reliance on higher-cost funding. Credit and concentration risks further weigh on the outlook, as net charge-offs averaged 15bps over the last five years, nonperforming assets rose to 41bps in 2Q26, and the LIHTC vertical still represents 31.5% of loans and ~60% of LTM fees.